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Central Highlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
high
31
med
Jan 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
high
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
low
16
17
18
19
20
low
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 January to 16 January, 19 January to 23 January, and 23 January to 27 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 January to 6 January, 14 January to 18 January, and 20 January to 24 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 January to 10 January, 12 January to 16 January, and 23 January to 27 January.

Issued Dec 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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