Central Highlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 August to 1 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 August to 1 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 August to 1 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
After record-breaking winter rainfall, parts of drought ravaged Queensland are starting to see sheep and cattle return.
The start of this week has been dominated by dry and settled weather for the majority of Western Australia, but as we look forward to the end of the working week, conditions are set to deteriorate.
A major winter rain event has begun and will continue across eastern states during the next two days.