Fairfax Media Network

Central Highlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
15
16
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
low
26
27
low
28
29
30
Dec 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 November to 22 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 4 December to 8 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 November to 22 November, 23 November to 27 November, and 5 December to 9 December.

Issued Nov 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Farmers welcome new weather radar to be built in Victoria's Wimmera region

06:30 EDT

Farmers say a new radar in the north-west Victorian town of Rainbow will fill a gaping hole in the country's weather radar network.

Deluge and Drought: Climate Council issues grim warning on looming water security crisis

20:38 EDT

The Climate Council has released a new report linking climate change with worsening droughts, including the current one, extreme weather events such as bushfires and floods, and identifying water security as a source of grave concern.

Wilcannia to get a new weir on struggling Darling River after three decades of lobbying

15:55 EDT

The Federal and New South Wales Governments have committed $30 million to upgrade the Wilcannia Weir in the state's far west.