Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
high
23
low
24
25
26
27
low
28
29
30
31
Jun 1
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
high
15
low
16
17
| Chance of rainfall within district |
nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 May to 1 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 20 June to 24 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 May to 4 June, 6 June to 10 June, and 19 June to 23 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 22 June to 26 June.
Issued May 19
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.