Central Highlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 January to 4 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 January to 31 January, 3 February to 7 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 22 February to 26 February.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Severe thunderstorms are affecting three states this afternoon.
New Zealand is experiencing an unseasonably cool summer, whilst parts of eastern Australia endure their hottest start to the year on record.
Cattle stations in the Kimberley region of Western Australia have had an extremely wet start to 2017.