Central Highlands 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 8 July to 12 July, and 14 July to 18 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, and 27 July to 31 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 July to 6 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 25 July to 29 July.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
The cold fronts that have frozen southeastern Australia haven't had the gas to push far enough north to cool Darwin, with heat records for the NT capital.
As residents in New South Wales emerge from under the rug after their , the question on the blue lips of many is what's the best way to stay warm? While many may feel their insides are rapidly chilling, Dr Ollie Jay from the University of Sydney said little was happening to our bodies internally and the cold was all due to "perception".
So far this winter Western Australia has been divided, unseasonably cold in the south and hot in the north.