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Central Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
high
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
med
13
14
med
15
low
16
low
17
18
19
low
20
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
low
Jun 1
2
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 May to 13 May, 20 May to 24 May, and 4 June to 8 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 May to 30 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 May to 24 May, 3 June to 7 June, and 7 June to 11 June.

Issued May 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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