Central Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 October to 2 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 23 November to 27 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 4 November to 8 November, and 19 November to 23 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 15 November to 19 November, and 24 November to 28 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Following a nice Sunday to end the weekend, the mercury is set to plunge on Monday as a cold front welcomes the working week.
Melbourne is on target for its coldest pair of days this late in the year since 1983, staying below a footy-season-like 14 degrees.
Hail storms, heavy rain and gusty winds have lashed Victoria and hundreds of people have called for help from emergency services as a cold front moved across the state.