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Victoria River 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
Apr 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 April to 11 April, 11 April to 15 April, and 17 April to 21 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 April to 8 April, and 25 April to 29 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 April to 14 April, 14 April to 18 April, and 18 April to 22 April.

Issued Mar 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Victoria thawing out

13:56 EDT Like a large area of southeastern Australia, Victoria has been been experiencing a chilly run, as much as four-to-ten degrees below average but is now thawing out.

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