Victoria River 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 October to 5 October, 5 October to 9 October, and 14 October to 18 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 October to 5 October, 11 October to 15 October, and 23 October to 27 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 October to 6 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
"Forbes' Lachlan River in central west New South Wales has peaked, the State Emergency Service says, with at least .
The flood-hit area of Forbes in central-western NSW is readying itself for the worst of a slow-moving flood, with the peak expected to hit after midnight.
Farmers near Forbes in the New South Wales central west are bracing for extensive loses as their crops continue to be inundated with flood waters, which are expected to peak later today.