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Victoria River 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
low
26
27
low
28
Mar 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 February to 26 February, 18 March to 22 March, and 23 March to 27 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 February to 28 February, and 6 March to 10 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 February to 26 February, 5 March to 9 March, and 17 March to 21 March.

Issued Feb 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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