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Roper-McArthur 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
Jul 1
2
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 June to 27 June, 29 June to 3 July, and 6 July to 10 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 25 June to 29 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 22 June to 26 June, and 29 June to 3 July.

Issued Jun 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Tasmania set for another freezing night

18:19 EST The mercury is set to plummet tonight across parts of Tasmania, with some places possibly seeing their coldest night in around two years.

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