Fairfax Media Network

Roper-McArthur 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
low
27
28
low
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 6 September to 10 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, and 19 August to 23 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 5 September to 9 September.

Issued Aug 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

City crowd kick their heels up in drought-stricken Queensland fundraising effort

10:00 EST

Chartering flights to outback races and getting city folk to enjoy some bush hospitality is one innovative approach to fundraising being adopted by a community group in parched western Queensland.

Police caution drivers as snow covers Tasmania again

09:33 EST

Tasmanian Police are urging drivers to be selective about where they travel today, with snow falling again to about 100 metres in the state's south and 400 metres in the north.

Weather bureau to hold public meeting in Tennant Creek over radar closure

09:32 EST

The Federal Government decision to shut down the Barkly region weather radar station has led to a public meeting due to be held tomorrow at 5pm in Tennant Creek.