Fairfax Media Network

Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
med
May 1
med
2
med
3
4
5
6
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 May to 5 May, 5 May to 9 May, and 10 May to 14 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 April to 28 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 May to 8 May, and 10 May to 14 May.

Issued Apr 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Warm oceans fuelling late end to big wet season

11:01 EST

Warmer-than-normal oceans have contributed to a late end to a big wet season across the southern hemisphere.

Cold and frosty lead-up to the last weekend of April

11:00 EST

Frosty morning temperatures are expected over Victoria and New South Wales on Thursday.

Heavy rain floods train stations, causes traffic delays across Melbourne

10:58 EST

Heavy rain in the Melbourne area has caused traffic problems, and flooded train station underpasses at Blackburn and Burnley, after a wintry blast swept across the state.