Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 October to 22 October, 23 October to 27 October, and 2 November to 6 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 October to 27 October, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 October to 21 October, 24 October to 28 October, and 7 November to 11 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Farmers across of Australia have been forced to cut areas of their cereal crops for wheaten hay, despite the product's lack of appeal on international markets.
Parts of coastal QLD received their heaviest October rain in five years.
Residents of Sunset Strip southeast of Broken Hill are gearing up to host the town's first open day this weekend, aimed at pitching the lakeside settlement to prospective home buyers.