Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 September to 12 September, 24 September to 28 September, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 September to 12 September, 23 September to 27 September, and 27 September to 1 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
The Southwest Land Division is starting spring as winter ended, wet, helping grain crops recover after a drier-than-normal winter The Southwest Land Division dried out during August then picked up reasonable rain at the end of the month and is about to get spring off to a wet start, giving grain farmers some hope.
Broadacre crop growers in the Mallee region of South Australia and Victoria could be able to minimise losses from severe frost if they get more decent rain.
The latest bushfire outlook has warned of a heightened risk of fires across South Australia this summer.