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Arnhem 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
24
low
25
26
27
28
29
30
Oct 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 6 October to 10 October, and 14 October to 18 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 15 October to 19 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 18 October to 22 October.

Issued Sep 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Southwest WA heats up before a soaking

16:39 EST The mercury soared in the nation's southwest today with Perth recording its hottest September day on record, however heavy rain and cooler temperatures will arrive on Sunday.

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