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Arnhem 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
high
23
high
24
med
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
low
Mar 1
med
2
med
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 23 March to 27 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 February to 23 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 15 March to 19 March.

Issued Feb 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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