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Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
low
30
high
31
med
Sep 1
high
2
high
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
20
21
low
22
23
24
low
25
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 September to 12 September, 21 September to 25 September, and 26 September to 30 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 September to 22 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 September to 9 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 26 September to 30 September.

Issued Aug 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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