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Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
med
Jun 1
2
3
4
5
low
6
7
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 June to 21 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 3 July to 7 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 June to 14 June, and 3 July to 7 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 June to 13 June, 18 June to 22 June, and 28 June to 2 July.

Issued May 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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