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Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
24
25
26
27
low
28
29
30
Oct 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 September to 2 October, 15 October to 19 October, and 20 October to 24 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 18 October to 22 October.

Issued Sep 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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