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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › South Coast Rainfall Forecast

South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
high
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
29
low
30
med
31
med
Jun 1
low
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 May to 1 June, 15 June to 19 June, and 22 June to 26 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 June to 8 June, 11 June to 15 June, and 15 June to 19 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 1 June, 16 June to 20 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Issued May 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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