South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
26
med
27
high
28
high
29
med
30
med
31
med
Feb 1
high
2
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
high
11
high
12
high
13
med
14
15
low
16
med
17
18
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 17 February to 21 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 January to 30 January, 2 February to 6 February, and 8 February to 12 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 January to 31 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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