Fairfax Media Network

South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
low
27
high
28
med
29
low
30
low
31
low
Aug 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
17
18
low
19
med
20
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 August to 6 August, and 10 August to 14 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 12 August to 16 August.

Issued Jul 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Cold start to the school term in NSW

16:25 EST

Although it will mostly be a pupil-free day for the majority of schools in the state, school staff across NSW will be going to work in the biting cold.

Ute-load of kindness a random act giving a farmer struggling with drought hope

14:38 EST

NSW Upper Hunter farmer David Wicks is struggling through the worst drought in living memory, but a stranger in the city that googled his name has given him hope.

Another wet week for Tasmania

12:33 EST

With frequent frontal systems running across the nations south over the coming week, it looks to be another wet week for Tasmania's west and north.