South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

5
low

6
low

7
med

10
low

11
med

12
low

16
low

17
med

18
low

19
low

20
med

21
med

22
med

23
low

24
low

25
high

26
high

27
high

28
high

29
high

30
med

31
high

Aug 1
high

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 July to 18 July, 22 July to 26 July, and 27 July to 31 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 July to 26 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 15 July to 19 July, and 19 July to 23 July.

Issued Jul 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.