South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 May to 20 May, 20 May to 24 May, and 3 June to 7 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 May to 11 May, and 5 June to 9 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 May to 12 May, 17 May to 21 May, and 21 May to 25 May.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Summer-like conditions continue to infiltrate into the Queensland autumn.
On the weekend wild winds battered South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria, toppling trees and bringing down powerlines and there is more of that on the way.
Vast areas of Queensland have experienced the hottest May night since records began, some of which stretch back to the 1800s.