South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
low
Apr 1
med
2
med
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
17
low
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 March to 2 April, 12 April to 16 April, and 21 April to 25 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 March to 31 March, 4 April to 8 April, and 19 April to 23 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 March to 1 April, and 12 April to 16 April.

Issued Mar 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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