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Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
high
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
med
13
med
14
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
high
28
med
29
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 September to 22 September, 28 September to 2 October, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 September to 22 September, 22 September to 26 September, and 30 September to 4 October.

Issued Aug 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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