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Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Aug 1
high
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
low
28
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 25 August to 29 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 July to 2 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 August to 11 August, 11 August to 15 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

Issued Jul 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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