Fairfax Media Network

Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
high
5
med
6
7
8
low
9
10
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
15
16
17
low
18
low
19
20
21
22
low
23
24
low
25
med
26
low
27
28
29
med
30
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 27 July to 31 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 July to 16 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 24 July to 28 July.

Issued Jul 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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