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Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
high
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
med
16
17
low
18
19
20
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 September to 22 September, 28 September to 2 October, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 September to 22 September, 22 September to 26 September, and 30 September to 4 October.

Issued Aug 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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