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Central Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
low
3
4
5
6
7
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
low
24
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 May to 10 May, 18 May to 22 May, and 1 June to 5 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 May to 11 May, 22 May to 26 May, and 4 June to 8 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 May to 10 May, 10 May to 14 May, and 2 June to 6 June.

Issued May 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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