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Southern Oscillation Index

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern (e.g. consistently above about +6 over a two month period) is related to a high probability of above the long-term average (median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially areas of eastern Australia (including northern Tasmania) - La Niña.

Conversely, a 'deep' and consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period, with little change over that period) is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year - El Niño.

However, it is important to remember that the pattern of relationship between SOI and rainfall (and temperature) can vary depending on the particular season and region. Additionally, the change in SOI over a specified period can be as important in understanding relationships between SOI and rainfall as is the absolute value in SOI.

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Weather News

Severe weather warning for Tasmania's north-east, possible flash flooding

18:03 EDT

Severe weather predicted for Tasmania's north and east on Friday has prompted a public warning from emergency services.

Wet night ahead of Friday flood threat

15:00 EDT

Rain and storms could bring flooding to parts of southern and southeast Australia during the next 24 hours.

Monsoon likely for Darwin and Top End, bringing cooler temperatures, more rain

14:03 EDT

People in Darwin and other parts of the Top End may be about to get relief from recent hot weather, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicting a monsoon trough will start to affect the area within days.